Switch Predicted: Best-Selling Next-Gen Console

Market research firm DFC Intelligence predicts Nintendo's Switch 2 will dominate next-generation console sales, even before its release. Their forecast points to impressive sales figures.

Projected Sales: 80 Million Units by 2028

Image from Nintendo

DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, labels the Switch 2 the "clear winner" in the next-gen console race. Nintendo is projected to lead the console market, outpacing competitors Microsoft and Sony. This forecast is based on the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 launch, giving it a significant head start, and a relatively less crowded market initially. The report estimates sales of 15-17 million units in 2025, reaching over 80 million units by 2028. Such high demand may even challenge Nintendo's manufacturing capabilities.

Image from Mario official Nintendo site

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these projects appear to be in early stages. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. However, the three-year gap (unless a surprise release occurs in 2026) should solidify the Switch 2's dominance. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong game franchises.

Nintendo's Switch has already made history, surpassing the PlayStation 2's lifetime US sales. Circana (formerly NPD) analyst Mat Piscatella announced on BlueSky that the Switch has sold 46.6 million units in the US, securing the second spot in all-time US console sales, behind only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is notable, despite a reported 3% decrease in Switch sales this year.

Video Game Industry Growth on the Horizon

DFC Intelligence paints a positive outlook for the video game industry. CEO David Cole highlights the industry's 20x growth over three decades and its projected return to healthy growth by the end of the decade, following a recent slump. 2025 is predicted to be a particularly strong year, driven by new releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI.

The gaming audience is expected to exceed 4 billion players by 2027, fueled by the rising popularity of portable gaming and the growth of esports and gaming influencers. This increased accessibility and engagement is also driving hardware sales, both for PC and consoles.